RateShield AI

🏥 Executive Health Dashboard

Business Health

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Overall

Liquidity

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Cash months

Hiring Risk

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Exposure

Debt Exposure

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Debt/payroll

AI Opportunity

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Savings/yr

Pricing Leakage

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Left on table

HOLD Enter your numbers across all modules to see your executive health score.

View mode:

Basic shows only what you need to act on. Advanced shows full tables and calculations.

📊 CEO Summary — Your company · Your sector

⚡ Scenario Simulator

Select a macro scenario. RateShield instantly recalculates every module and shows how your business performs in each environment.

Base Case — Current environment

Loading current environment from the Financing Strategy inputs…

Predicted Rate

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Safe Hires

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AI Profit Gain

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Monthly Interest

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Optimal Price

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Predicted rate — all 5 scenarios

12-month Fed rate forecast under each macro environment

Business impact — profit and optimal price

Equilibrium profit and recommended price in each scenario

Financing Strategy

Enter 5 macro numbers. Get the probability of a rate hike, hold, or cut — and the exact action your sector should take right now.

Input	Value	Unit
CPI inflation		% · target 2.0%
Above 3%: cuts on hold · Below 2%: cuts possible
Unemployment rate		% · full employment ~4.0%
Above 6%: recession signal · Below 3.5%: hike pressure
10Y Treasury yield		% · normal 2–5%
Rising yield = market expects rates higher for longer
GDP growth rate		% · recession below 0%
Negative = emergency cuts (2008,2020) · Above 4%: hike risk
Core PCE inflation		% · Fed preferred gauge
Must fall below 2.5% before cuts — the most important signal
CPI 3 months ago		% · CPIAUCSL, −3 mo
Momentum: a rise over 3 months adds score (weight 0.8 per pt, clamped ±1.5)
Core PCE 3 months ago		% · PCEPILFE, −3 mo
Momentum: a rise over 3 months adds score (weight 1.0 per pt, clamped ±1.5)
10Y yield 3 months ago		% · DGS10, −3 mo
Momentum: a rise over 3 months adds score (weight 0.6 per pt, clamped ±1.5)
6-month Treasury yield		% · DGS6MO
Market expectation: above Fed funds = hikes priced, below = cuts priced
2-year Treasury yield		% · DGS2
Two-year policy path priced by the market
CME FedWatch hike % (optional)		% · not fetched
Type the FedWatch hike probability if you have it — RateShield never scrapes CME
CME FedWatch cut % (optional)		% · not fetched
Hold = 100 − hike − cut
Fed stance (from daily brief)	No brief yet	score −2…+2 · read-only
Written daily by the Fed briefing assistant from federalreserve.gov statements · hover the score for why

Predicted rate — 12 months

3.25%

Gradual easing — transition environment

FOMC probabilities (model-implied)

Rate hike

Hold

34%

Rate cut

58%

Market-implied (6-mo Treasury vs Fed funds)

Rate hike

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Hold

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Rate cut

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Rate path

Current rate (effective Fed funds, daily)—

In 6 months3.50%

In 12 months3.25%

In 18 months3.00%

Model confidence (analog-distance heuristic)—

Backtest (12-month direction, ±0.25 = hold)

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What this means for your sector

Loading sector context...

Analyst Notes — Rate Prediction Model

Predicted rate = 2.5% base + Σ(signal contributions) × 0.4 | Taylor-rule-style heuristic (CONFIG.forecast)

Signal	Your input	Neutral	Contribution	Rule	Pressure

CPI and Core PCE contribute continuously: (x − 2.0%) × 0.75 score points, clamped to −2…+3 for CPI and −1.5…+1.5 for Core PCE, so a small move in inflation never jumps the forecast. Unemployment (above 6% / below 3.5%), 10Y Treasury (above 5% / below 2%) and GDP (below 0% / above 4%) add fixed steps. Momentum: the 3-month change in headline CPI (× 0.8), Core PCE (× 1.0) and the 10Y yield (× 0.6), each clamped to ±1.5, is added so a re-accelerating series counts even before it crosses a threshold; the "3 months ago" inputs are pre-filled from FRED and can be overridden. Fed stance: the daily brief's score (−2 dovish … +2 hawkish, from federalreserve.gov communications) × 0.75, clamped ±1.5; 0 when no brief exists. Predicted 12-month rate = 2.5% + score × 0.4, rounded to 25 bp. Historical analog matching uses normalised Euclidean distance across all 5 signals against a curated set of FRED annual averages (CONFIG.analog.years, 1974–2024); model confidence is a heuristic of that distance, and the FOMC probabilities are a softmax over the predicted 12-month rate change.

Macro signal contribution to rate forecast

Recommended decision

Do this now

Lock floating rate debt to fixed if in HIGH environment

Watch this metric

Core PCE — must fall below 2.5% before rate cuts begin

Revisit when

After next Fed meeting or when CPI moves above 4% or below 2%

Rate Outlook — Fed watch

No brief yet

Fed stance: no brief yet

The daily Fed briefing assistant has not written a brief yet. Once it runs (7 am ET), the Fed's stance, its last statement and the next FOMC meeting appear here.

Outlook vs. consensus — Fed funds rate, next 18 months

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Path	Now	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo	18 mo

Market: FRED DGS6MO/DGS2 · Consensus: none logged · RateShield: model + blend

3-month forecast error: no scored meetings yet.

18-month rate path — 3 scenarios

Base case + bull (more cuts) + bear (fewer cuts) · Source: RateShield model on FRED data

Period	Base case	Bull	Bear	vs. Today

Verified FRED historical data

Peak rate 1981 — Volcker shock (CPI 14.8%)20.0%

Low rate 2003 — post dot-com crash1.0%

Zero rate era 2008–2015 — financial crisis0.25%

Post-COVID peak 2023 — fastest hike in 40 years5.25%

Current rate—

Yield curve recession accuracy (DataSetIQ)87.5% — 7 of 8

Closest historical analog to today—

Workforce Capacity

Enter your numbers. Get one answer: how many people you can safely hire right now — and what happens to your cash if you hire more.

Input	Value	Unit
Annual revenue		$M / year
Total annual sales
Current headcount		employees today
Total full-time employees right now
Average salary		$K / person / yr
Mean annual compensation
Planned new hires		people (next 12 mo)
RateShield tells you the safe number to hire
Total business debt		$M outstanding
All outstanding loans
Cash on hand		$M liquid
Liquid cash — need 3+ months payroll before hiring
Operating margin		% of revenue
Sets net cash burn (costs − revenue) · negative for a loss year · same value as AI Advantage

Analyst Notes — Hiring Safety Calculation

Safe hires = min(planned_hires, affordable_hires) × environment_factor × sector_factor × profit_boost

Net monthly burn = monthly_operating_costs − monthly_revenue, where costs = revenue × (1 − margin)

Cash runway (months) = (cash_reserves × 1000) ÷ net_monthly_burn — "Cash-flow positive" when burn ≤ 0

Payroll coverage (months) = (cash_reserves × 1000) ÷ monthly_payroll, monthly_payroll = (headcount × avg_salary_$K) ÷ 12

Debt/payroll ratio = (total_debt × 1M) ÷ (headcount × salary_$K × 1000)

Variable	Value	Threshold	Status

Environment factor: HIGH rate environment = 0.25× (max 25% of planned hires). TRANSITION = 0.55×. LOW = 1.0× (full planned hires safe). Affordable hires = the share of the plan cash runway can support (6+ months = all, 3–6 = 55%, under 3 = 20%); a cash-flow-positive business is gated by profit capacity instead. Debt/payroll above 1.5× = high risk; above 2.5× = critical.

Cash runway vs planned hires

Recommended decision

Do this now

Hire only the safe number shown above — hold the rest until cash runway exceeds 6 months

Watch this metric

Cash runway in months — minimum 3 months payroll required before hiring

Revisit when

When cash runway exceeds 6 months or rate environment shifts to LOW

Hiring scenario comparison

Current vs. after all hires vs. after safe hires only

AI Advantage

AI can reduce your operating costs, improve productivity, and protect margins if demand softens. See exactly how much you can save and what to do first.

How AI creates a competitive cost advantage

AI reduces operating costs

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Protect margins

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Lower prices safely

→

Gain more volume

→

Win market share

AI can reduce operating costs, improve productivity, and protect margins if demand softens. Companies that automate first gain a structural cost advantage. WEF 2025: businesses using AI see 15–40% cost reductions across key functions.

Input	Value	Unit
Annual revenue		$M / year
Total annual sales
Current profit margin		% of revenue
Sector average loaded on login
Labour as % of costs		% of costs
More labour = more AI can save · Sector avg loaded on login
Raw material cost % of revenue		% of revenue
Scales with production volume
Fixed costs % of total costs		% of costs
Does not change with production volume

Before vs. after AI compression — revenue, costs, profit

4 stages: current → AI cuts costs → lower prices → volume gain

Sector-specific AI action plan — your sector

Analyst Notes — AI Savings Model

Total costs = revenue × (1 − margin_%) · Labour cost = total_costs × (labour_% of costs ÷ 100)

AI labour saving = labour_cost × sector_automatable_share (CONFIG.ai.automatableShare — e.g. technology 22%, professional services 20%, construction 8%)

Net profit gain = AI_saving − implementation_cost_amortised + volume_gain_from_price_cut

Cost component	% of costs	AI impact	Annual saving

Sector AI implementation benchmarks: Manufacturing (robotic process automation, predictive maintenance) saves 8–15% of labour costs. Technology (code generation, QA automation) saves 12–25%. Restaurant (AI scheduling, ordering) saves 10–18% of labour. Retail (demand forecasting, inventory) saves 6–12% of raw material costs. Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2024, WEF 2025.

AI savings by cost category

Recommended decision

Do this now

Implement the AI action with fastest payback shown in the action plan below

Watch this metric

Labour cost as % of revenue — should fall after AI is implemented

Revisit when

Every 6 months, or when a relevant AI tool drops below $5,000/month

Debt Exposure

Drag the slider to see exactly what each loan type costs at every possible Fed rate — and compare to what you would have paid at the 2023 peak of 5.25%.

Federal funds rate — drag to see live impact

Federal funds rate		%
Change to model scenarios
Fixed-rate share of your debt		% of total debt
Debt already locked at a fixed rate — unaffected by the slider above
Average rate on fixed-rate loans		% APR
Only applies to the fixed-rate share above · e.g. SBA 504, term mortgages
Loan term (for amortising payment)		years
Optional — used only for the full principal + interest payment shown below the interest figures

Most important loans for your sector

Prime rate loans

Moves same day as Fed

6.75%

Fed + 3.00%

Credit cards, overdraft, working capital

$500K → $3,375/mo

SBA 7(a) loans

Adjusts quarterly

9.50%

SBA variable ceiling (Prime + 2.75%)

Most common small business loan

$500K → $3,958/mo

SOFR loans

Updates daily — most volatile

7.05%

SOFR + spread (replaced LIBOR)

CRE, large equipment $1M+

$2M → $11,750/mo

Commercial real estate

Tied to 10Y Treasury

7.45%

10Y Treasury + ~3.00%

Warehouses, offices, factories

$3M → $18,625/mo

Equipment financing

Floating or fixed — your choice

7.25%

Prime + 0.50% if floating

Machinery, vehicles, AI systems

$800K → $4,833/mo

Fixed rate loans

Fed rate = zero impact ✓

LOCKED

Set at origination — never changes

SBA 504, fixed mortgages. Always the goal.

Your rate — forever

Total monthly interest — your debt mix

$38,541/mo

$462,492/year — $500K credit + $500K SBA + $2M SOFR + $800K equipment

Total rate-exposed debt loading...

Full amortising payment loading...

Annual interest cost vs. Fed rate

Same loans — every Fed rate level · Source: Prime=Fed+3%, SBA=Prime+2.75%, SOFR≈Fed+3.15%

Analyst Notes — Loan Rate Mechanics

Prime rate = Fed Funds rate + 3.00% (historical bank spread)

SBA variable ceiling (Prime + 2.75%) — the SBA 7(a) maximum variable rate

SOFR floating = Fed Funds + 3.15% (30-day SOFR + credit spread)

Equipment loan = Prime + 0.50% (secured, lower risk premium)

Monthly interest = (balance × annual_rate ÷ 100) ÷ 12 — interest only, no principal

Amortising payment = P × (r ÷ 12) ÷ (1 − (1 + r ÷ 12)^−(12 × term_years)) — principal + interest over the loan term

Loan type	Rate formula	At current Fed rate	At 2023 peak (5.25%)	Monthly interest	Amortising payment	Risk

Rate sensitivity by sector — variable-cost increase per 1 pt Fed move — loads from CONFIG on login.

Monthly interest cost by Fed rate

Recommended decision

Do this now

Refinance any SOFR or floating loans to fixed if Fed rate is above 3.5%

Watch this metric

Monthly interest as % of revenue — warning if above 2%

Revisit when

When Fed signals direction change, or before your floating loan next resets

Growth & Pricing Optimizer

Finds your profit-maximising price and output using real economics tailored to your sector. Shows how rising rates shift your cost curve and exactly where your equilibrium moves.

Input	Value	Unit
Average selling price per unit		$ per unit
Your current average price — drives the entire demand curve
Units sold per year		units / year
Units / transactions / customers / covers per year
Variable cost per unit		$ per unit
Materials, labour, fuel per unit — NOT rent or overhead
Total annual fixed costs		$ / year
Rent, salaries, insurance — flat regardless of output
Customer price sensitivity		coefficient
1.0=neutral · Above 1=price-sensitive · Below 1=loyal/captive

Analyst Notes — Equilibrium Pricing Model

Optimal price = (a + VC_adjusted) ÷ 2, where a = P + b×Q (demand intercept), b = P ÷ (Q × elasticity)

Profit-maximising output = (a − VC_adjusted) ÷ (2 × b)

VC_adjusted = VC × (1 + (Fed_rate − 2.5%) × rate_sensitivity)

Variable	Current	Optimal / Adjusted	Impact

Rate sensitivity per sector (variable-cost increase per 1 pt Fed move) — loads from CONFIG on login.

Recommended decision

Do this now

Adjust price to the recommended level shown in Table 1 row 2

Watch this metric

Pricing power score — if falling, competitors are undercutting you

Revisit when

Every quarter, or immediately after any Fed rate change above 0.25%

Current profit/yr

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At your current price

Recommended price

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Profit-maximizing level

Recommended volume

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Units/yr at that price

Expected profit gain

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vs. today

Profit at different price points

Green = recommended price · Blue = current price

Scenario comparison

Revenue, costs and profit across rate scenarios

Table 1 — Scenario comparison: current vs. optimal vs. rate scenarios

profit-maximizing price and volume · Rate shifts cost curve · Green = profit-maximising · All values from your inputs

Scenario	Price	Output	Revenue	Variable costs	Profit	Margin	vs. Today	Status

Table 2 — Unit-by-unit profit analysis: step-by-step profit optimisation (31 levels)

Make more when revenue gained > cost to produce · Stop here — peak profit · Never make more whe

Price vs profit curve

When cost>MR · Green = equilibrium

Output	Price	Total revenue	Revenue from next unit	Cost of next unit	Profit/unit	Total cost	Profit/Loss	Decision

Table 3 — Operating leverage, break-even, Pricing power score — benchmarked vs. sector

profit sensitivity = profit amplification with volume · Pricing power score (0=commodity, 1=monopoly)

Metric	Your business	Industry benchmark	What it means

Table 4 — How your ideal price changes at every Fed rate

Higher rates push cost curve up → optimal output falls, price rises · Highlighted = current rate

Fed rate	VC impact	Optimal price	Optimal output	Profit	vs. Today	Pricing power	Action

Executive Advisor

Your sector-aware financial advisor. Knows your industry benchmarks, the current rate environment, and gives specific numbers-based answers — not generic advice.

Conversations private to your account · Not used for training · Encrypted in transit

Analyst Notes — What the Executive Advisor Knows

Data source	Current value	How it shapes advice
Sector benchmarks	—	Margin, labour %, elasticity, rate sensitivity vs. industry average
Rate environment	—	Determines hiring safety factor, debt urgency, and pricing window
Pricing gap	—	Distance between current price and profit-maximising equilibrium
AI opportunity	—	Estimated annual saving from AI automation vs. sector peers
Hiring risk	—	Cash runway and debt/payroll ratio against safe-hire threshold
Debt exposure	—	Monthly interest burden and % of revenue at current Fed rate

The Executive Advisor receives all of the above as system context on every query. It does not have access to your conversation history between sessions. The model used is Claude Sonnet — calibrated for financial specificity, not general conversation.

Advisor input stack

Welcome. I know your sector benchmarks and the current rate environment. Ask me anything — I give specific numbers, not generic advice.

⑦ Cash Deployment — Idle Cash Analyzer

Most mid-sized businesses leave excess cash in checking earning near zero. This module tiers your cash by liquidity need and shows what it could earn in safe, liquid instruments at the yields you enter.

Input	Value	Unit
Total cash on hand		$M total
All bank balances — checking, savings, sweep
Monthly operating expenses		$K / month
Payroll, rent, vendors — total monthly cash out
Operating buffer to keep liquid		months of opex
3 months is the common floor — this tier never leaves checking/sweep
Checking / sweep yield		% APY
What your bank pays today — often near 0%
Money market fund yield		% · 7-day yield
Government MMF — same-day liquidity · check your broker's current rate
Treasury bill yield (3–12 mo)		% · treasurydirect.gov
State-tax-exempt · ladder maturities to match cash needs
12-month CD yield		% APY
FDIC-insured to $250K per bank — use brokered CDs to spread larger amounts

Deployable idle cash

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Beyond your operating buffer

Earning today

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All cash at checking yield

Could be earning

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Tiered deployment / yr

Opportunity gap

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Left on the table every year

Tier	Purpose & instrument type	Amount	Yield	Earns / yr
1 · Operating	Payroll & vendor buffer — stays in checking/sweep, instant access	—	—	—
2 · Reserve	Next-quarter needs — government money market fund, same-day liquidity	—	—	—
3 · Strategic	6–12 mo horizon — T-bill ladder (60%) + brokered CDs (40%)	—	—	—

Educational scenario modeling only — not investment, legal, or tax advice. Yields shown are the values you entered; actual rates vary by institution and change daily. Instrument availability, minimums, insurance limits, and tax treatment differ by situation. Consult your financial advisor, banker, or CPA before moving funds.